pipeline project a reality? By Gulshen Ashirova, TCA contributor
ASHGABAT (TCA). President Niyazov's dream of diversifying routes delivering Turkmen energy sources to the international market may come true. Although today Turkmen natural gas is still exported only through Russia, the southeast route seems to become more realistic.
Turkmenistan, the largest natural gas producer in Central Asia, has frequently spoken about its ability to export up to 100 billion cubic meters a year. The current stabilization in the region makes this project quite possible.
"After establishing peace in Afghanistan, we could lay a gas pipeline through Afghanistan to Pakistan," said Turkmen President Saparmurad Niyazov at the launching of a new gas processing facility at Dovletabat-Donmez field. This gas field with estimated reserves of 1.3 trillion cubic meters could be the basic source for the trans-Afghan pipeline project.
This statement was made after Niyazov's meeting with US Secretary of State Assistant Elizabeth Jones, who recently visited Ashgabat as part of her Central Asian tour. "The United States always supports alternative and cost-effective projects," she told journalists. But this does not mean the White House is going to finance this project. This is for private American companies and private capital, thinks Elizabeth Jones. "Probably they will again interest in this project," she said and emphasized that capitalists are mostly interested in the local investment environment and that "Turkmenistan yet has much to do in this direction."
The US $2 billion trans-Afghan project has been directly connected with American presence in Central Asian region. Since 1995, the White House has been actively promoting the trans-Afghan gas pipeline project connecting Dovletabad, Turkmenistan, and Multana, Pakistan, and entrusted Unocal to acquire a controlling interest in the international consortium to implement the project.
At that time the United States made every effort to prevent Ashgabat from implementing another gas pipeline project - to Turkey via Iran. After the failure of the Iran project and a new wave of civil war in Afghanistan, in 1998 Unocal quitted the game. Ashgabat, which managed to establish friendly relationships with the Taliban and the Northern Alliance, was making consistent attempts to promote the trans-Afghan pipeline project, acting as a UN peacekeeper to stop the Afghan conflict.
The trans-Afghan gas pipeline project has also been discussed at the summits of the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO). Today the consortium, Central Asia Gas Pipeline Ltd., incorporates Delta Oil Company (Saudi Arabia), Itochu Corporation and INPEX (Japan), Crescent Group (Pakistan), and Hyundai Engineering & Construction Co. Ltd. (South Korea). However, the project implementation was prevented by high political risks. Now the situation has changed. Peace has finally been established in Afghanistan. Of course, even billions of western investments would not completely rebuild the country's infrastructure, ravaged by the 20-year long civil war and completely hollowed out the recent American air strikes.
This is also understood by Afghan interim leader Ahmed Karzai, who regularly sent his emissaries to President Niyazov and planned an official visit to Turkmenistan. Karzai is particularly interested in this gas pipeline, which will solve many social problems of the Afghan people and earn a solid amount for the country (an estimated US $0.5 billion a year).
During his visit to Islamabad, Karzai told journalists that the trans-Afghan project has secured the blessing of Pakistani leader Pervez Musharraf. At a meeting with UN Deputy Secretary General Kenzo Oshima, President Saparmurad Niyazov suggested that the UN consider the trans-Afghan gas pipeline as an effective instrument for establishing peace life in Afghanistan.
Analysts think that with a viable Afghan government and the political stability in the region this project may be strategically important. The vast and demanding natural gas market of Pakistan, as well as India, Nepal, and Bangladesh in the long shot, makes the trans-Afghan pipeline project more and more realistic.